LOOKS LIKE HE CALLED IT - PLUS MORE ARGUEMENTS FOR "ROY II"

In a posting last week, I had noted that Delaware County Daily Times Phillies beat writer Ryan Lawrence had posted a scenario in the Daily Times on July 11 in which right fielder (and alleged blackjack pro) Jayson Werth, who is slowly devolving into Pat Burrell circa 2003-2005, would be traded for prospects, then in turn, the prospects would be traded away for a front line starter.

Well, after Jamie Moyer's career appeared to have, for all intents and purposes, ended last night after one inning in St. Louis, the pressure is on for the Phillies brain trust to bring in another top of the line starter to fill Moyer's slot.

ESPN's Jayson Stark and Buster Olney had separately reported that the Phillies were in discussion to (1) trade Werth to the Tampa Bay Rays and (2) attempt to acquire Roy Oswalt from the Houston Astros.

Here's what Lawrence said about such a scenario:

Here’s something to stuff in the G.M. suggestion box: Phone a friend (Ed Wade?) and be the ringmaster in another multi-team trade to send free-agent-to-be Jayson Werth out (Boston?) and bring a top-of-the-line pitcher in.



Would it weaken the team? Possibly. Although he has struggled lately and is as streaky as any hitter in baseball, Werth’s right-handed power bat may have more value in the Phillies’ lineup than what he would bring in return. He has batted behind Ryan Howard the last two seasons and both have enjoyed extensive success at the plate during that time.


But as the days pass and the Phils don’t announce a contract extension for Werth, it seems likely that he’ll go to the highest bidder after filing for free agency in November. Rather than wait for draft-pick compensation, the Phils may be better off trading Werth in the next three weeks.


They also have Brown waiting in the wings.


Would the Phils be too left-handed heavy with the left-handed hitting Brown replacing Werth? Not as much as you might think.


When Placido Polanco mends, the Phils will have three players — Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino — who could be the right-handed bat to break up the Chase Utley-Ryan Howard-Raul Ibanez-Brown run of lefties. Plus, you could platoon Brown or Ibanez with right-handed-hitting Ben Francisco.

But here is why executing a three-team deal to send Werth out makes the most sense: If you’re landing a top-of-the-rotation pitcher who is signed beyond 2010, you are undoubtedly upgrading your team?


What would you rather have: Werth for 2½ more months, or Roy Oswalt/Danny Haren for the next year-and-a-half and Brown in the majors?


If the Phils can land two decent prospects for Werth and package those with their own top pitching prospect, Jarred Cosart, don’t you do that if it means pairing Roy Oswalt (3.08 ERA this season, 3.22 ERA in his 10-year career) with Halladay and Cole Hamels at the top of your rotation?

Oswalt, who is making $15 million this season, is owed $16 million in 2011 and has a club option for $16 million — with a $2 million buyout — for 2012.

It’s a deal that would improve the Phils for this year and next.

So, nearly 10 days later, it looks as though Lawrence's "suggestion" may be coming to fruition.  The third team (Boston) may have been off, but if it's any consolation, at least the team reportedly involved (Tampa Bay) is in the same division.

So, if this Werth-Oswalt trade plays out, here's something for Phillies fans to chew on.  Oswalt is having a decent, if not great, season for a terrible Houston team.  Cliff Lee, who would've been a Phillie this season had he not been shipped off to Seattle (and, later Texas) is also having a decent season, but then again, so is Roy Halladay, the player who essentially took Lee's slot in the rotation.

Another possibility for the Phils, albeit a remote one, is Arizona starter Dan Haren, although this would run the risk of turning into a debacle, a la Joe Blanton.

So, at the risk of sounding redundant, here's how the stats of potential Phils Oswalt and Haren, current Phillie Halladay, and former Phillie Lee stack up:

Cliff Lee (combined stats for Seattle and Texas)

8-4, 2.59 ERA, 15 starts, 6 complete games, 1 shutout, 121 2/3 innings, 97 strikeouts, 7 walks, 8 home runs allowed, .231 opponents average; 3 starts where he surrendered 5+ runs: May 5 for Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (5 runs, 4 earned in 8 innings), May 21 for Seattle vs. San Diego (8 runs, 7 earned in 6 1/3 innings - his shortest outing of the year), and July 10 for Texas at Baltimore (6 earned runs in a complete game loss).  And remember that Lee missed the first few weeks of the season with an injury.

Roy Halladay

10-8, 2.40 ERA, 20 starts, 7 complete games, 3 shutouts (including that perfect game at Florida on May 29), 154 innings, 134 strikeouts, 19 walks, 13 home runs allowed, .248 opponents average; 4 starts where he surrendered 5+ runs: April 26 at San Francisco (5 earned runs in 7 innings), May 23 vs. Boston (7 runs, 6 earned in 5 2/3 innings - his shortest outing of the year), June 15 at the Yankees (6 earned runs in 6 innings), and this past Sunday at Chicago (6 runs, 5 earned in 6 innings).

Roy Oswalt

6-11, 3.12 ERA, 19 starts, 1 complete game shutout, 124 innings, 117 strikeouts, 23 walks, 11 home runs allowed, .220 opponents average; 2 starts where he surrendered 5+ runs: June 5 vs. Chicago Cubs (6 earned runs in 7 innings) and June 27 at Texas (8 runs, 7 earned in 4 2/3 innings).  His shortest outing of the year was on May 31 vs. Washington, where he surrendered 4 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings; he left his last start on Sunday at Pittsburgh after four innings after suffering a left ankle contusion in the second inning off a Pedro Alvarez liner.

Dan Haren

7-8, 4.60 ERA, 20 starts, 1 complete game, 135 innings, 133 strikeouts, 27 walks, 21 home runs allowed, .287 opponents average; 7 starts in which he surrendered 5+ runs: April 10 vs. Pittsburgh (6 runs, 5 earned in 6 2/3 innings), April 20 vs. St. Louis (7 earned runs in 6 innings), May 16 at Atlanta (7 runs, 6 earned in 4 1/3 innings), May 27 at Colorado (8 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings), June 17 at Boston (6 runs, 4 earned in 5 2/3 innings), June 23 at St. Louis (5 runs, 3 earned in 8 innings), and on Friday at San Diego (6 earned runs in 5 innings).

With the exception of 2001, where he pitched in 28 games while starting 20, and 2003, where he started 21 games, Oswalt has started an average of 3x games for the Astros.  In 2003, Oswalt was placed on the disabled list with a strained groin on July 20, 2003 and stayed there for the rest of the season.  Oswalt spent the last few weeks of last season on the disabled list with lower back inflamation (retroactive to September 16, 2009).  So take that for what it's worth.

Still, in the overall scheme of things, the best move for the Phillies at this stage would be to do everything possible to obtain Oswalt, as he's signed through next season (with a club option for 2012).  Having a top three rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, and Cole Hamels (who has been getting better this season) certainly couldn't hurt the Phillies as their chances of a 4th consecutive division title slip away.