LOOKS LIKE HE CALLED IT - PLUS MORE ARGUEMENTS FOR "ROY II"

In a posting last week, I had noted that Delaware County Daily Times Phillies beat writer Ryan Lawrence had posted a scenario in the Daily Times on July 11 in which right fielder (and alleged blackjack pro) Jayson Werth, who is slowly devolving into Pat Burrell circa 2003-2005, would be traded for prospects, then in turn, the prospects would be traded away for a front line starter.

Well, after Jamie Moyer's career appeared to have, for all intents and purposes, ended last night after one inning in St. Louis, the pressure is on for the Phillies brain trust to bring in another top of the line starter to fill Moyer's slot.

ESPN's Jayson Stark and Buster Olney had separately reported that the Phillies were in discussion to (1) trade Werth to the Tampa Bay Rays and (2) attempt to acquire Roy Oswalt from the Houston Astros.

Here's what Lawrence said about such a scenario:

Here’s something to stuff in the G.M. suggestion box: Phone a friend (Ed Wade?) and be the ringmaster in another multi-team trade to send free-agent-to-be Jayson Werth out (Boston?) and bring a top-of-the-line pitcher in.



Would it weaken the team? Possibly. Although he has struggled lately and is as streaky as any hitter in baseball, Werth’s right-handed power bat may have more value in the Phillies’ lineup than what he would bring in return. He has batted behind Ryan Howard the last two seasons and both have enjoyed extensive success at the plate during that time.


But as the days pass and the Phils don’t announce a contract extension for Werth, it seems likely that he’ll go to the highest bidder after filing for free agency in November. Rather than wait for draft-pick compensation, the Phils may be better off trading Werth in the next three weeks.


They also have Brown waiting in the wings.


Would the Phils be too left-handed heavy with the left-handed hitting Brown replacing Werth? Not as much as you might think.


When Placido Polanco mends, the Phils will have three players — Polanco, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino — who could be the right-handed bat to break up the Chase Utley-Ryan Howard-Raul Ibanez-Brown run of lefties. Plus, you could platoon Brown or Ibanez with right-handed-hitting Ben Francisco.

But here is why executing a three-team deal to send Werth out makes the most sense: If you’re landing a top-of-the-rotation pitcher who is signed beyond 2010, you are undoubtedly upgrading your team?


What would you rather have: Werth for 2½ more months, or Roy Oswalt/Danny Haren for the next year-and-a-half and Brown in the majors?


If the Phils can land two decent prospects for Werth and package those with their own top pitching prospect, Jarred Cosart, don’t you do that if it means pairing Roy Oswalt (3.08 ERA this season, 3.22 ERA in his 10-year career) with Halladay and Cole Hamels at the top of your rotation?

Oswalt, who is making $15 million this season, is owed $16 million in 2011 and has a club option for $16 million — with a $2 million buyout — for 2012.

It’s a deal that would improve the Phils for this year and next.

So, nearly 10 days later, it looks as though Lawrence's "suggestion" may be coming to fruition.  The third team (Boston) may have been off, but if it's any consolation, at least the team reportedly involved (Tampa Bay) is in the same division.

So, if this Werth-Oswalt trade plays out, here's something for Phillies fans to chew on.  Oswalt is having a decent, if not great, season for a terrible Houston team.  Cliff Lee, who would've been a Phillie this season had he not been shipped off to Seattle (and, later Texas) is also having a decent season, but then again, so is Roy Halladay, the player who essentially took Lee's slot in the rotation.

Another possibility for the Phils, albeit a remote one, is Arizona starter Dan Haren, although this would run the risk of turning into a debacle, a la Joe Blanton.

So, at the risk of sounding redundant, here's how the stats of potential Phils Oswalt and Haren, current Phillie Halladay, and former Phillie Lee stack up:

Cliff Lee (combined stats for Seattle and Texas)

8-4, 2.59 ERA, 15 starts, 6 complete games, 1 shutout, 121 2/3 innings, 97 strikeouts, 7 walks, 8 home runs allowed, .231 opponents average; 3 starts where he surrendered 5+ runs: May 5 for Seattle vs. Tampa Bay (5 runs, 4 earned in 8 innings), May 21 for Seattle vs. San Diego (8 runs, 7 earned in 6 1/3 innings - his shortest outing of the year), and July 10 for Texas at Baltimore (6 earned runs in a complete game loss).  And remember that Lee missed the first few weeks of the season with an injury.

Roy Halladay

10-8, 2.40 ERA, 20 starts, 7 complete games, 3 shutouts (including that perfect game at Florida on May 29), 154 innings, 134 strikeouts, 19 walks, 13 home runs allowed, .248 opponents average; 4 starts where he surrendered 5+ runs: April 26 at San Francisco (5 earned runs in 7 innings), May 23 vs. Boston (7 runs, 6 earned in 5 2/3 innings - his shortest outing of the year), June 15 at the Yankees (6 earned runs in 6 innings), and this past Sunday at Chicago (6 runs, 5 earned in 6 innings).

Roy Oswalt

6-11, 3.12 ERA, 19 starts, 1 complete game shutout, 124 innings, 117 strikeouts, 23 walks, 11 home runs allowed, .220 opponents average; 2 starts where he surrendered 5+ runs: June 5 vs. Chicago Cubs (6 earned runs in 7 innings) and June 27 at Texas (8 runs, 7 earned in 4 2/3 innings).  His shortest outing of the year was on May 31 vs. Washington, where he surrendered 4 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings; he left his last start on Sunday at Pittsburgh after four innings after suffering a left ankle contusion in the second inning off a Pedro Alvarez liner.

Dan Haren

7-8, 4.60 ERA, 20 starts, 1 complete game, 135 innings, 133 strikeouts, 27 walks, 21 home runs allowed, .287 opponents average; 7 starts in which he surrendered 5+ runs: April 10 vs. Pittsburgh (6 runs, 5 earned in 6 2/3 innings), April 20 vs. St. Louis (7 earned runs in 6 innings), May 16 at Atlanta (7 runs, 6 earned in 4 1/3 innings), May 27 at Colorado (8 earned runs in 6 1/3 innings), June 17 at Boston (6 runs, 4 earned in 5 2/3 innings), June 23 at St. Louis (5 runs, 3 earned in 8 innings), and on Friday at San Diego (6 earned runs in 5 innings).

With the exception of 2001, where he pitched in 28 games while starting 20, and 2003, where he started 21 games, Oswalt has started an average of 3x games for the Astros.  In 2003, Oswalt was placed on the disabled list with a strained groin on July 20, 2003 and stayed there for the rest of the season.  Oswalt spent the last few weeks of last season on the disabled list with lower back inflamation (retroactive to September 16, 2009).  So take that for what it's worth.

Still, in the overall scheme of things, the best move for the Phillies at this stage would be to do everything possible to obtain Oswalt, as he's signed through next season (with a club option for 2012).  Having a top three rotation of Halladay, Oswalt, and Cole Hamels (who has been getting better this season) certainly couldn't hurt the Phillies as their chances of a 4th consecutive division title slip away.

OSWALT vs. HAREN - WHO WOULD YOU WANT?

As the Phillies start the second half of the season, the latest trading deadline rumors have the Phillies actively seeking to acquire either Houston pitcher Roy Oswalt or Arizona pitcher Dan Haren.  So, if it came down to those two, which one would you rather see in Phillies pinstripes?

Fortunately, since I have too much time on my hands, here's a breakdown of stats for both pitchers and their respective contracts, which should make for some interesting debate.

Roy Oswalt

Oswalt, a 10 year veteran who has played his entire career with the Astros, turns 33 on August 29.  He is making $15 million this season, and is slated to make $16 million next year with a club option for 2012.

Oswalt is 6-10 in 18 starts, but has a 3.08 ERA (slightly below his career ERA of 3.22), has struck out 112 and walked 33 over 120 innings.  He has surrendered 11 home runs, but did pitch a complete game, 1 hit shutout in his last outing on July 8 vs. Pittsburgh.  Opponents are hitting just .213 off him this season, 5th best in the National League (by comparison, Roy Halladay's stats for the Phils so far - 10-7, 2.19 ERA, 7 CG, 128 K, 19 BB, 11 HR allowed, opponents hitting .246).  This is Oswalt's worst season of his 10 in the bigs, but in his defense, he plays for a pretty crummy Houston team.

In Oswalt's first eight seasons in the majors, he averaged 16 wins per season, including a pair of 20 win seasons in 2004 and the Astros' pennant winning season of 2005.  Oswalt has been dependable this season, going at least 6 innings in all but two starts - May 31 vs. Washington (2 1/3 innings, 4 earned runs) and June 27 at Texas (4 2/3 innings, 8 runs, 7 earned).  Oswalt has had only one other start where he was shelled, and that was on June 5 vs. the Chicago Cubs, who torched him for 6 earned runs over 7 innings.

Dan Haren

Haren, who turns 30 on September 17, is in his eight year in the majors.  Haren began his career with St. Louis in 2003 before being traded to Oakland prior to the 2005 season.  He is currently being paid $8.25 million by the Diamondbacks this season, is due $12.75 million in 2011 and 2012, and has a club option for 2013.

Haren is 7-7 in 19 starts with a 4.36 ERA, has struck out 125 and walked 26, but has given up 19 home runs, which makes Haren tied for 3rd in the National League with Cole Hamels in that category.  Former Phillie and current Brewer Randy Wolf leads the NL with 21 homers surrendered, and, with the two homers tonight against the Cubs, Jamie Moyer likely moves into 2nd with 20. 

Opponents are hitting .283 off him this season.  Haren has averaged 14 wins and 34 starts over the previous five seasons with the A's and Diamondbacks.

Hurting Haren's ERA were six games in which he surrendered 5 or more runs - April 10 vs. Pittsburgh (6 total, 5 earned), April 20 vs. St. Louis (7), May 16 at Atlanta (7 total, 6 earned), May 27 at Colorado (8), June 17 at Boston (6 total, 4 earned), and June 28 at St. Louis (5 total, 3 earned).

So, what next?

Oswalt would seem to be a better fit for a pitching staff that has Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer (tonight's debacle at Wrigley notwithstanding) and two major question marks (Joe Blanton - the mother of all epic pitching fails this season - and Kyle Kendrick).  Considering his numbers this season for a pretty bad Houston team, perhaps a change of scenery to Broad and Pattison will help.

On the other hand, Oswalt's contract is double that of Jayson Werth (last year of a 2 year deal worth $7.5 million per), who the Phillies are reportedly trying to trade.  The payroll was a big reason why the Phillies didn't keep Cliff Lee (or so they claim).  If the Phillies weren't willing to keep Lee past 2010, would it seem likely that they keep Oswalt to 2011 or 2012?

Meanwhile, Haren is less expensive and is still three years younger than Oswalt.  However, the things against Haren is that teams would have to give up more to acquire him in a trade and Haren's erratic and borderline Blanton-esque outings this season are bound to give fans at the Bank more heartburn before Brad Lidge throws his first warmup pitch.  It would be a pretty dubious feat to have three pitchers in the top four in homers allowed in your starting rotation.

If the Phillies are committed to getting back into, at a minimum, the Wild Card race, it would be best for them to pursue Oswalt.  One trade rumor that had been circulating was a three-way deal between the Astros, Phillies, and Red Sox, in which Oswalt comes to Philly, Werth (and his beard) are traded to Boston, and some prospects are traded from both the Sox and Phils farm system.

I don't remember the exact rumor off the top of my head, but that was one variation of the rumor.  Though no teams were mentioned, had Werth being traded for prospects to another team (read: Boston), who in turn would be traded for a front-line starter (read: Oswalt).  At least that's what Delaware County Daily Times Phillies beat writer Ryan Lawrence threw out there in his blog on July 8.  Subsequent speculation is what filled in the blanks.

While it would be tempting to go for the cheaper Haren, the Phillies would essentially be stuck with another Joe Blanton.  That would pretty much end any shot at a third straight pennant.

Of course, that's just my opinion ... and you're entitiled to it...

SO, WHAT'D I MISS?

On a day after my muscles were aching from being in air conditioning for extended periods last week, I went down to Ocean City, Maryland for the day.  Unfortunately, the rain decided to come along for the trip as well.

There is bus service that operates from Wilmington to Rehoboth, where you can connect to a system of shorter routes that connect the Rehoboth boardwalk, Lewes, the Del. 24 corridor, and Ocean City via Del. 1.  Once you get to Ocean City, bus service along the main drag, in theory, runs pretty frequently, although there are stretches where you could wait 10-15 minutes between buses, then have 4 or 5 buses show up within the next 10-15 minute stretch.  Think of it as a coastal version of SEPTA's 47 bus.

So, how is it that the State of Delaware can have such foresight to operate a decent bus system for it's beach destinations but New Jersey Transit can barely get bus service to shore points in South Jersey not named Wildwood or Cape May?  Wanna get to Sea Isle City, Avalon, or Stone Harbor via NJ Transit?  Good luck with that; it's virtually impossible other than about 5 or 6 daily round trips scattered throughout the day.

And while we're on the subject, is there any particular reason why the Delaware River and Bay Authority - who operates the Cape May - Lewes Ferry - can't be bothered to run shuttle buses that meet all ferry arrivals at the Cape May (actually, Lower Township) terminal?  A two hour walk along poorly lit U.S. 9 and other back roads through Lower Township and West Cape May just to get to the bus terminal in Cape May City is not enjoyable, especially when it's dark out...

So, I heard there was some bike race in West Chester yesterday.  What was it, the "Tour de Farce" or something like that?  It certainly must have been if the Chamer of Communists (uh, I mean, Commerce) of Greater West Chester is involved.  Anyway, don't expect me to comment much further except to say that I'm glad I wasn't there.  Too bad they didn't have a fight break out as was the case after Stage 6 of the Tour de France...

Oh, and the Phillies swept the Reds in a four game set at The Bank.  Tell me, where the hell was this team when they lost two of three to Those Braves?  Anyway, the Phightins have always been a good second half team (as was the case in 2007 during the chase for the first of three division flags), so to be 4 1/2 back of My-Lanta and within striking distance of the Metropolitan Soap Opera of Flushing, Queens going into the All-Star Break considering that the Phils resemble a MASH unit more than the defending National League champs is no cause for panic.

And Brad Lidge actually got both of his batters out today in earning his 6th save of the year.  (And there was much rejoicing, yay)...

And, finally, the World Cup is finally over.  You can now resume your lives, already in progress...

RANDOM MUSINGS FOR 6/29/10 - SPORTS RELATED

So, the Philadelphia 76ers have announced plans to hire a "ticket guru" to help boost attendance, according to the blog "Crossing Broad."  Apparently, slipping two places in the NBA attendance rankings was more of a wake-up call than the fact that the Sixers, well, sucked last season, as indicated by the 27-55 record.  So, instead of thinking about signing even a servicable free agent with some talent, the Sixers instead hire one Joseph Ondrejko as "vice president of ticket sales."

Let's just say that Mr. Ondrejko's job will be slightly more lonely than the Maytag repairman. Or the presiding district judge at Chesterbrook District Court (the slowest district court in Chester County).

The Sixers had the 25th best attendance out of 30 teams in the 2009-2010 NBA season (14,224 fans per game), which was a decline from the mediocre 2008-2009 season, when the team ranked 23rd (15,802 fans per game).  Guess the Allen Iverson experiment of putting butts in the seats didn't work as well as putting butts in the seats did in the late 1990's for the World Wrestling Federation (now WWE) after Mick Foley won the WWF(E) title during a taped episode of WWF Raw in 1999 (click on the link to understand the "butts in the seats reference").

Well, as if the Sixers, who lucked their way into the second overall pick in the 2010 NBA Draft, didn't need any more advice, allow me to offer some.  For free, no less:

How about putting five guys on the basketball court who can actually play at a professional level?  No matter how much you hate the Celtics (personally, I can tolerate the Celtics; the Lakers, not so much - maybe it was the 10 years I spent living in New England before returning home to Philly), at least they have more than a bunch of big-time superstar players (Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen), including the most underrated superstar in the NBA, one Rajon Rondo.  (Okay, they also have Rasheed Wallace, but at least during the Flyers-Bruins series, he knew how to represent Philly.)

Wow, five talented players on the court at the same time?  What a concept.

Of course, if that fails, you can always put a Five Guys burger stand in the food court at The Center.  After all, if it's good enough for Exton Square Mall, it's gotta be good enough for The Center.  (Oh, and if you have to ask "which Center", you're not a true Philly sports fan.)

Not for nothing, but would you believe that the Chicago Bulls - who don't exactly jump out as an elite franchise than that Jordan dude retired - had the best attendance in the NBA last season?  And "Duh Bulls" - at 41-41 - barely made the playoffs.  Seriously.  Cleveland, Portland, Dallas, and the Knicks (seriously? The Knicks?) round out the top five.

(Worst attendance, not so shockingly: The East Rutherford/Exit 16W/Soon to be Brooklyn by way of Newark Nyets, who drew 13,103 fans per game at the dump off the Jersey Turnpike.)

Of course, Comcast Spectacor shouldn't have to look too far for tips on how to improve attendance at Sixers games - other than putting out a good product.  The Flyers, who the last time I checked were co-tenants at The Center, had the fourth best attendance in the NHL (19,535 per game).  Of course, having a team that knows how to win helps.  (The top five NHL teams in attendance this season - Chicago, Montreal, Detroit, Flyers, Calgary; Toronto came a close 6th despite having the 2nd worst record in the NHL.)

By the way, Ed Stefanski, my idea is such a great one, you should hire me as a "guru."  If President Obama can hire 400+ "czars" to run the government, you can certainly spring for a couple more "gurus" to make the Sixers look better.

Moving on...

Phillies played like crap last night and now there's talk that Chase Utley might miss a few games with an injured thumb.  And where was Kyle Kendrick last night?  I don't really want to talk about it, other than the fact that Kendrick wasn't himself last night.  Then again, who the hell knows who he was last night?  For that matter, who outside of Ohio actually thought that the Reds were actually a decent team?

Oh, well, we'll get them tomorrow...

Random sports transaction of the day: Providence College names Kevin Gamble "coordinator of player development and video operations for men's basketball."  Yeah, like that's going to help the Friars get out of the cellar of the Big East.  That wouldn't happen to be one of those "we're just going to create a long job title so it makes our new hire seem more important" hirings, would it?

Okay, I'm done ranting for now.  Maybe later I'll post some non-sports related stuff...