As the Phillies start the second half of the season, the latest trading deadline rumors have the Phillies actively seeking to acquire either Houston pitcher Roy Oswalt or Arizona pitcher Dan Haren. So, if it came down to those two, which one would you rather see in Phillies pinstripes?
Fortunately, since I have too much time on my hands, here's a breakdown of stats for both pitchers and their respective contracts, which should make for some interesting debate.
Roy Oswalt
Oswalt, a 10 year veteran who has played his entire career with the Astros, turns 33 on August 29. He is making $15 million this season, and is slated to make $16 million next year with a club option for 2012.
Oswalt is 6-10 in 18 starts, but has a 3.08 ERA (slightly below his career ERA of 3.22), has struck out 112 and walked 33 over 120 innings. He has surrendered 11 home runs, but did pitch a complete game, 1 hit shutout in his last outing on July 8 vs. Pittsburgh. Opponents are hitting just .213 off him this season, 5th best in the National League (by comparison, Roy Halladay's stats for the Phils so far - 10-7, 2.19 ERA, 7 CG, 128 K, 19 BB, 11 HR allowed, opponents hitting .246). This is Oswalt's worst season of his 10 in the bigs, but in his defense, he plays for a pretty crummy Houston team.
In Oswalt's first eight seasons in the majors, he averaged 16 wins per season, including a pair of 20 win seasons in 2004 and the Astros' pennant winning season of 2005. Oswalt has been dependable this season, going at least 6 innings in all but two starts - May 31 vs. Washington (2 1/3 innings, 4 earned runs) and June 27 at Texas (4 2/3 innings, 8 runs, 7 earned). Oswalt has had only one other start where he was shelled, and that was on June 5 vs. the Chicago Cubs, who torched him for 6 earned runs over 7 innings.
Dan Haren
Haren, who turns 30 on September 17, is in his eight year in the majors. Haren began his career with St. Louis in 2003 before being traded to Oakland prior to the 2005 season. He is currently being paid $8.25 million by the Diamondbacks this season, is due $12.75 million in 2011 and 2012, and has a club option for 2013.
Haren is 7-7 in 19 starts with a 4.36 ERA, has struck out 125 and walked 26, but has given up 19 home runs, which makes Haren tied for 3rd in the National League with Cole Hamels in that category. Former Phillie and current Brewer Randy Wolf leads the NL with 21 homers surrendered, and, with the two homers tonight against the Cubs, Jamie Moyer likely moves into 2nd with 20.
Opponents are hitting .283 off him this season. Haren has averaged 14 wins and 34 starts over the previous five seasons with the A's and Diamondbacks.
Hurting Haren's ERA were six games in which he surrendered 5 or more runs - April 10 vs. Pittsburgh (6 total, 5 earned), April 20 vs. St. Louis (7), May 16 at Atlanta (7 total, 6 earned), May 27 at Colorado (8), June 17 at Boston (6 total, 4 earned), and June 28 at St. Louis (5 total, 3 earned).
So, what next?
Oswalt would seem to be a better fit for a pitching staff that has Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, Jamie Moyer (tonight's debacle at Wrigley notwithstanding) and two major question marks (Joe Blanton - the mother of all epic pitching fails this season - and Kyle Kendrick). Considering his numbers this season for a pretty bad Houston team, perhaps a change of scenery to Broad and Pattison will help.
On the other hand, Oswalt's contract is double that of Jayson Werth (last year of a 2 year deal worth $7.5 million per), who the Phillies are reportedly trying to trade. The payroll was a big reason why the Phillies didn't keep Cliff Lee (or so they claim). If the Phillies weren't willing to keep Lee past 2010, would it seem likely that they keep Oswalt to 2011 or 2012?
Meanwhile, Haren is less expensive and is still three years younger than Oswalt. However, the things against Haren is that teams would have to give up more to acquire him in a trade and Haren's erratic and borderline Blanton-esque outings this season are bound to give fans at the Bank more heartburn before Brad Lidge throws his first warmup pitch. It would be a pretty dubious feat to have three pitchers in the top four in homers allowed in your starting rotation.
If the Phillies are committed to getting back into, at a minimum, the Wild Card race, it would be best for them to pursue Oswalt. One trade rumor that had been circulating was a three-way deal between the Astros, Phillies, and Red Sox, in which Oswalt comes to Philly, Werth (and his beard) are traded to Boston, and some prospects are traded from both the Sox and Phils farm system.
I don't remember the exact rumor off the top of my head, but that was one variation of the rumor. Though no teams were mentioned, had Werth being traded for prospects to another team (read: Boston), who in turn would be traded for a front-line starter (read: Oswalt). At least that's what Delaware County Daily Times Phillies beat writer Ryan Lawrence threw out there in his blog on July 8. Subsequent speculation is what filled in the blanks.
While it would be tempting to go for the cheaper Haren, the Phillies would essentially be stuck with another Joe Blanton. That would pretty much end any shot at a third straight pennant.
Of course, that's just my opinion ... and you're entitiled to it...
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